Where is India’s Growth Story At? Indications from Provisional Estimates of GDP

Meghna Paul , Sharad Pandey
(2021)

On 31 May 2021, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released provisional estimates on the performance of the economy in the fourth quarter (Q4) of the financial year (FY) 2020-21 (covering the period from January 2020 to March 2020). Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 7.3 per cent for the year, but grew at 1.6 per cent over the last quarter of the year (Q4).

The performance of the economy over the last two quarters in FY 2020-21 is noteworthy as it has reflected the capacity of the economy to recover post the first nationwide lockdown in 2020.

This explainer explores some data points indicative of trends that are: i) likely to persist through the current financial year; and ii) indicators that provide further insight into the performance of other underlying factors within the economy.